Australian election 2010 resulted in a hung government. So far, Labor managed 74 seats (72 Labor, 1 independent and 1 Greens), Liberal and National Coalition got 73 seat. The remaining 3 are country independents. Either Labor or Liberal-National doesn’t have the magic number (76 seats, as a majority) to form a government, has to seduce 3 country independents to support.
There are 8 (2^3) possible permutations of 3 independents towards one of the parties, 1 X 3-0, 1X 0-3, 3X 1-2, 3X 2-1, out of the 8 possibilities, 5 possibilities will results a government (1 X 3-0, 1X 0-3, and 3X 2-1). The Labor has 4 chances to form a government (1X 3-0, 3X 2-1), while the Liberal-Nations has only on chance (1X 0-3). The odds for Labor is 4 to 1, or 1to 4 for Liberal. However, the chance that none of parties merge with more than 76 seats are 3 out of 8. It is very likely this will be ended tomorrow. By the way, the movie from John Marsden’s novel “Tomorrow when war began” starts screening now.
Sep 7 2010.
The results towards Labor was 2-1. The odds prevailed. Labor is is back in power. The Number never lies.